Presidential race appears headed for a run-off, two new polls indicate

Ecuador’s presidential race continues to tighten, according to two national polls released this week. CMS and Perfiles de Opinión show Alianza País candidate Lenin Moreno leading conservative rivals Guillermo Lasso (CREO) and Cynthia Viteri (Christian Democrat) but by widely different margins.

Lenín Moreno

The polls indicate that it is unlikely Moreno will win on the first ballot and will face either Lasso or Viteri in an April 2 run-off. Both polls also show a surprisingly large percentage of voters remain undecided.

Perfiles de Opinión gives Moreno 35% support, down half of a percent from its December poll, 13 points ahead of second-place Viteri. CMS has Moreno at 28% with Viteri in second at 18% and Lasso in third at 17%.

Cynthia Viteri

Both polls show the other five candidates far behind, polling in the mid- to low-single digits.

Alianza País, the party created by President Rafael Correa, is the most popular party at 35%, according to Perfiles de Opinión, leading the Christian Democrats, 17%, and CREO, 14%. The other parties registered with the national elections commission polled in the single digits.

Guillermo Lasso

CMS, which said more than half the voters remain undecided in both the presidential and National Assembly elections, has País at 20%, CREO at 9%, and the Christian Democrats at 6%.

Jorge Sanchez of Perfiles de Opinión said his poll indicated that it will be almost impossible for Alianza País to maintain its super majority status in the National Assembly following the election. “It’s even questionable that País will have a simple majority, although it appears they will enjoy a numerical advantage,” he said. “With President Correa gone, the political dynamic of Ecuador will change dramatically.”